Africa is confronting what civil society groups describe as a mathematical impossibility in health financing, one that threatens to unravel decades of public health progress as donor support rapidly declines.
As Heads of State prepare to convene in Addis Ababa for the African Union (AU) Summit, a coalition of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) has warned of a looming fiscal cliff.
Over the past four years, Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Africa has fallen by 70 percent, the sharpest contraction in recent history, while disease outbreaks across the continent have surged by 41 percent.
Health advocates say the combination of rising health threats and shrinking funding has exposed deep structural vulnerabilities in Africa’s health systems.
Dr Penninah Iutung, the AHF Executive Vice President.
Against this backdrop, AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF) Africa, working with Africa REACH, WACI Health, and the Resilience Action Network Africa (RANA), will convene a high-level webinar on February 5, 2026, to address what organisers have termed the “$17 Question.”
Health spending in many African countries currently averages just $17 per person per year, compared to an estimated $60 per capita required to deliver essential health services.
“We cannot beg our way out of a $43 per person deficit,” said Dr Penninah Iutung, AHF Executive Vice President.
With donor priorities shifting and assistance declining, Africa must pivot from reliance to sovereignty. This is not just about health; it is about continental security.
Rosemary Mburu, Executive Director of WACI Health, said Africa could no longer afford to be reactive in the face of converging crises. She argued that communities most affected by disease outbreaks must play a central role in shaping policy responses.
According to Mburu, a 41 percent increase in outbreaks alongside a 70 percent drop in aid leaves the continent with little choice but to take ownership of its health future.
Rosemary Mburu, the Executive Director of WACI Health
Africa has made no shortage of high-level commitments, including the Abuja Declaration, which calls for governments to allocate at least 15 percent of national budgets to health, and the African Leadership Meeting (ALM) Investing in Health Declaration.
However, many countries continue to spend below 10 percent, even as external health financing declines.
Civil society groups say the gap between commitments and implementation has become untenable.
Organisers describe the upcoming webinar as a strategy-setting forum rather than a symbolic discussion.
The session will bring together representatives from the East African Community (EAC), AUDA-NEPAD, and civil society to draw practical lessons and finalise a CSO-driven Call to Action that will feed directly into deliberations at the AU Heads of State Summit.
Key issues on the agenda include reframing the Abuja health financing target, accelerating local manufacturing of vaccines and medicines, and strengthening domestic resource mobilisation to fund health systems sustainably.
Positioned as a curtain-raiser to the AU Summit, the webinar aims to ensure that voices from affected communities help shape high-level policy decisions, as Africa grapples with the growing imperative of health sovereignty in an era of declining donor aid.