I’ve had countless conversations over the past few months with policymakers and exporters navigating impossible uncertainty about contracts and commitments they entered into in good faith.
What I’ve come to realise from these conversations is this: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) isn’t just a trade policy.
For example, in Kenya, it’s a lifeline for over 66,000 women and youth in our textile and apparel sector alone. It’s the difference between prosperity and precarity for hundreds of thousands more across horticulture, manufacturing, and agriculture.
But it’s also something else. It’s a mirror reflecting a deeper question we must ask ourselves: What kind of trade partnership do we truly want with the United States?
The Numbers Tell Only Part of the Story
Yes, AGOA has delivered measurable impact. Africa’s exports to the U.S. grew from $17.9 billion in 2002 to $31.4 billion in 2022, with a notable peak in 2008, when exports reached $86.1 billion. Kenya is one of the success stories, with exports growing from $110 million in 2000 to $771.3 million by 2024. Our textile and apparel sector, which accounts for more than 90% of our AGOA exports, has created tens of thousands of jobs, primarily for women and young people.
These aren’t just statistics. They are lives that were transformed. They represent school fees paid. They’re families lifted out of poverty.
But here’s what the numbers don’t capture: the anxiety of entrepreneurs who’ve built businesses around duty-free access, only to watch that certainty evaporate into political uncertainty. The stress of workers who’ve just heard that their jobs hang in the balance of Congressional debates thousands of miles away.
That’s the human cost of uncertainty.
We welcome the Extension, But We Need More.
The recent talks of a one-year extension are a relief, not a solution. It would give us breathing room, but it doesn’t give us what businesses need most: predictability.
You cannot build a sustainable enterprise on a one-year horizon. You cannot attract foreign direct investment when your competitive advantage expires annually. You cannot plan for growth when you’re constantly planning for survival.
As business leaders, we must be honest about what this moment demands. It’s not just about renewing AGOA. It’s about reimagining what our trade partnership with the United States should look like for the next generation.
The AGOA uncertainty isn’t just a crisis. It’s a mirror reflecting an uncomfortable truth about how we’ve structured our economies. We’ve built export machines pointed outward while our largest market,1.4 billion Africans with a combined GDP of over $3 trillion, remains largely untapped. We have the youngest, fastest-growing population on earth. We have complementary economies that could support integrated value chains spanning the continent.
What we lack is the commitment to trade with each other first.
Three Truths We Must Acknowledge
First, AGOA was never meant to be permanent, and that’s actually okay.
The purpose of trade preferences was always to build capacity, strengthen competitiveness, and graduate to more sustainable trade models. Kenya has done precisely that. We’ve built world-class manufacturing capacity that can compete anywhere.
The question isn’t whether we can survive without AGOA. It’s whether we’re brave enough to thrive beyond it.
Second, bilateral trade agreements take time, but the work must start now. President Ruto’s pursuit of a bilateral trade agreement with the United States is the right strategy.
Such an agreement would offer the long-term predictability our businesses desperately need. But these negotiations are complex, requiring alignment across multiple sectors and stakeholders.
That’s why we need a robust transition framework. Not one year. Not a series of annual cliffhangers.
But a meaningful bridge, perhaps five years, that allows us to complete bilateral negotiations without holding our breath every twelve months.
Third, we cannot put all our trade eggs in one basket.
Even as we pursue deeper ties with the U.S., we must accelerate implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). We must cultivate markets in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. We must ensure that our young entrepreneurs aren’t dependent on any single market access pathway.
Diversification isn’t disloyalty. It’s a smart economic strategy.
Where Policy Meets Practice
Our government has pursued AGOA extension and bilateral negotiations with determination. That work continues and matters deeply.
What would amplify this effort is the accelerated implementation of AfCFTA provisions, moving from commitments to commercialisation. Trade facilitation reforms that genuinely reduce the cost of doing business are essential. Policy consistency that allows investors to plan beyond election cycles.
Perhaps most critically, we need integration across sectors. Trade policy works when it’s synchronized with industrial strategy, infrastructure investment, and skills development. Siloed efforts, however well-intentioned, deliver fragmented results.
Mutual Economic Prosperity
The Kenya-U.S. economic relationship has always been built on mutual benefit, not dependency.
That foundation remains strong.
What businesses on both sides of this partnership need most right now is predictability. The ability to sign contracts with confidence. To make investment decisions without annual cliffhangers. To build supply chains that serve American and African markets sustainably.
AGOA has created value for American consumers through competitive products, for American companies through reliable sourcing, and strengthened American interests through the economic stability that partnership enables.
As we navigate this transition, whether toward bilateral agreements, extended AGOA, or entirely new frameworks, the spirit of mutual benefit should guide us as equal partners building something that works for everyone involved.
Ubuntu in Trade
In leadership, I often return to the African philosophy of Ubuntu, I am because we are. It reminds us that true prosperity is shared. That sustainable growth lifts communities, not just companies.
That’s the spirit we need in this moment. Not Global North versus Global South. Nor East Africa versus West Africa. But a genuine commitment to building trade frameworks that create shared prosperity for all.
Currently, intra-African trade accounts for only 15-18%, which is much lower than intra-regional trade in other continents, ranging from 40 to 80%. From where I sit, that’s the real inflection point.
Our biggest opportunity as Africans is to trade more and smarter amongst ourselves, not as a consolation for missing out on AGOA, but as the economic strategy we should have been pursuing all along.
What Business Can Do
This moment calls for practical shifts in how we operate.
Market diversification isn’t just risk management; it’s a growth strategy. The businesses navigating this uncertainty best are those who’ve been building multiple revenue streams across different regions.
Active participation in AfCFTA implementation matters. Not waiting for perfect conditions, but trading, learning, and contributing to improvements through real commercial experience.
And perhaps most importantly, investing the same energy in understanding African markets that we’ve historically invested in understanding Western ones.
The Real Question
The conversation shouldn’t be: “How do we save AGOA?” It should be: “How do we build an African economy so integrated, so dynamic, so resilient that no single external trade agreement can make or break us?”
AGOA’s uncertainty is uncomfortable. However, comfort breeds complacency. Discomfort breeds innovation. And innovation, resilience.
Sixty-six thousand Kenyans in the textile sector are counting on us. Hundreds of thousands more across African economies are watching. But more importantly, a generation of African entrepreneurs is ready to build pan-African businesses if we create the enabling environment.
The future of African trade won’t be written outside the continent. It will be shaped by the choices we make here, now, together, whether we see this moment as a loss or a liberation. Whether we finally commit to the economic integration we’ve been promising for decades.
I remain optimistic. Not because AGOA might be extended, though that would help. But because of the latent potential waiting to be unleashed if African businesses are given real access to African markets.
What are we waiting for?
Maxwell Okello is the CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kenya.