Trade-enabling infrastructure across Africa is showing marked improvement, while business confidence and macroeconomic stability strengthen across key markets, according to the latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB).
Issue 5 of the ATB, which covers Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia, reveals that firms reported gains across all major infrastructure categories, including power, telecommunications, roads, rail, ports, and digital border systems.
“Across the 10 markets we surveyed, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category. This marks the first time since the ATB’s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously, reflecting growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation across the continent,” said Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group.
These 10 markets collectively account for 68% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, highlighting a more positive outlook for cross-border commerce, the report notes.
First launched in 2022, the ATB combines quantitative macroeconomic data and firm-level survey insights, drawing on responses from 2,218 companies, approximately 71% of which are SMEs.
Growth and Confidence on the Rise
The report projects growth across the ATB markets to reach 4.3% in 2026, supported by moderating inflation in seven economies and improved external debt positions.
Business confidence also rose to 65, with most firms anticipating stronger turnover and more stable trading conditions. Commodity strength in gold, platinum, and copper has further supported exporters and foreign exchange earners.
Integration and Regional Trade Gains
Awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) reached 50%, with firms citing easier goods movement, wider market access, and industrialisation benefits. Early AfCFTA-enabled shipments demonstrate tangible operational progress.
East Africa emerged as the strongest-performing subregion, recording a 10-percentage-point increase in export activity. Kenya plays a central role as a regional integration anchor.
The recent Kenya–Uganda trade reclassification, which treats Kenyan goods as intra-regional transfers rather than imports, has reduced administrative friction. Meanwhile, renewed commitments by Kenya and Tanzania to remove non-tariff barriers are easing cross-border trade.
“These reforms, combined with major corridor upgrades across Northern and Central transport routes, are reducing border delays, improving logistics predictability, and strengthening supply-chain reliability,” the ATB notes.
Digital Trade and Global Shifts
Digital systems now facilitate 78% of cross-border sales and 79% of purchases, thanks to bank-led rails, mobile money integration, and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS).
At the same time, shifts in global trade policies, including changes to US tariffs, are driving firms to engage more with Asian markets, particularly China, citing competitive pricing, product variety, and supply-chain reliability.
Challenges Remain
Climate-related pressures remain a key concern, with 38% of firms reporting demand shifts due to climate impacts and 32% citing productivity losses, underscoring the need for resilient infrastructure and production systems.
The ATB measures Africa’s trade readiness across seven pillars: trade openness, access to finance, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, governance and government support, foreign trade dynamics, and trade financial behaviour.
Across these indicators, improvements were observed in digital trade adoption, SME access to credit, customs efficiency, and logistics predictability.
Outlook
Africa’s trade landscape is being reshaped by integration, stronger infrastructure, firmer macro fundamentals, and rising business confidence. Geopolitical uncertainties, including the ongoing Middle East conflict, could, however, affect energy prices and supply chains in the short term.
“As AfCFTA implementation deepens, and as more countries harmonise customs, regulatory frameworks, and logistics platforms, Africa’s ability to expand industrial capacity, scale regional value chains, and strengthen competitiveness is set to accelerate,” concludes Myburgh.
