Kenya’s economy is set to remain resilient in 2026, underpinned by solid domestic demand, growing digital inclusion, and increasingly diversified trade relationships, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI).
Inflationary pressures are expected to be moderate, aided by a weaker US dollar and lower energy costs, giving the central bank room to ease interest rates.
The Economic Outlook 2026 report highlights key trends expected to shape the global economic landscape this year. The report examines how global policy shifts from 2025 will continue to influence economies worldwide throughout 2026.
Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole is poised for stronger growth, driven by easing inflation, resilient consumer demand, and sustained infrastructure investment.
“The economic outlook for Kenya in 2026 is broadly constructive as the country continues to demonstrate impressive adaptability in a rapidly shifting global environment,” said Khatija Haque, Chief Economist, EEMEA, Mastercard Economics Institute. “Strengthening trade ties with emerging markets are expected to support economic momentum, though risks remain from global trade tensions and commodity price volatility.”
Shehryar Ali, Senior Vice President and Country Manager for East Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands at Mastercard, added: “Kenya’s growing digital adoption, expanding export pathways, and thriving SMEs position the country to seize opportunities in a rapidly transforming world.”
Key trends highlighted for Kenya include:
- Diversifying trade: Deepening ties with Asia, the Middle East, and new markets following China’s removal of import duties on most African goods.
- Digital transformation: AI adoption and technology integration expected to boost productivity and economic growth.
- SME growth: Digitally agile small businesses poised to expand in tech-driven services and local solutions.
- Consumer behavior: Kenyan consumers are increasingly tech-savvy and value-conscious, prioritizing experiences while managing costs on essentials.
The ‘Economic Outlook 2026’ draws on extensive public and proprietary data, including aggregated Mastercard sales activity and predictive economic models, offering a detailed view of Kenya’s economic trajectory for the year.
