The Kenyan property market delivered a surprising contradiction in the third quarter of 2025: house prices rose 8.2% annually even as rental income declined 1.3% for the year, according to HassConsult’s latest quarterly property index released today.
Behind this paradox lies a story of exodus, wealth, and a middle class under pressure.
The Expatriate Exit
For decades, international aid workers and NGO staff drove demand for Nairobi’s upscale detached houses, particularly in suburbs like Muthaiga. When aid flows ended and expatriates departed, rental prices predictably collapsed—the HassConsult data shows Muthaiga rents fell sharply in Q3, contributing to an overall 1.6% quarterly decline in rental prices.
But something unexpected happened. Instead of landlords panic-selling and prices crashing—as occurred during previous expatriate exits in 2012 and Covid—local buyers with cash stepped in. They weren’t interested in renting; they wanted to own.
The Hass Property Index shows Runda house prices surged 15.3% over the year. Athi River accelerated to 4.3% quarterly growth, achieving 4.9% annual gains. Detached house prices across the market jumped 11.3% annually, even as rental demand evaporated.
“All segments delivered sales price growth in Q3, reflecting the market’s solid foundation in cash-driven demand,” said Sakina Hassanali, Co-CEO and Creative Director at HassConsult. “But it was a subdued quarter overall, as middle class incomes remained under pressure.”
The Developer’s Playground
The real action was in transformation. Spring Valley became the market’s hottest suburb according to the Hass Land Index, with land prices jumping 3.6% in just the third quarter and 13.3% annually as developers bought up large single-family plots to convert into apartments and commercial buildings.
At KES 305.9 million per acre, Spring Valley land cost nearly ten times the satellite town average of KES 32.3 million. But developers saw opportunity: Nairobi’s suburbs with good transport links and relaxed zoning were gold mines.
“The area is transitioning from exclusively top-of-the-market large homes and gardens to a mixed-use area, with commercial properties and apartments,” Hassanali explained in the report.
Areas stuck with single-family restrictions told a different story. Muthaiga, with limited appeal for commercial development due to scarce public transport routes and planning restrictions, saw land prices fall 0.2% quarterly and 0.1% annually, according to the land index data.
The apartment market reflected this split. The property index shows Parklands, with new developments, saw rents rise 12.5% annually. Upper Hill, with aging stock, saw both prices and rents fall. Langata apartments posted the highest quarterly sales price increase at 4.4%, while Upper Hill apartments dropped 2.6%. Westlands apartments fell 13.2% over the year—the steepest annual decline in the index.
The Squeeze on Self-Builders
Beyond Nairobi’s leafy suburbs, the Hass Land Index for satellite towns told a grimmer story. Land prices in 14 monitored satellite areas rose just 0.84% in Q3—down from stronger growth in previous quarters and rising only 6.6% for the year.
These satellite towns had been the dream for middle-class Kenyans: buy an affordable plot in areas like Kiserian, Kitengela or Athi River, then build a family home in stages as money allowed. The land index shows Kiserian land averaged KES 13.4 million per acre, Kitengela KES 18.7 million—dramatically cheaper compared to Nairobi’s KES 223.9 million average across 18 monitored suburbs.
But “tightening finances are reducing the flow of buyers able to get through the initial entry gate for self-building of a land purchase, despite the far lower and more advantageous prices in the satellite areas,” Hassanali said in the report.
Only satellite areas attractive to developers were thriving. The land index shows Juja posting 14.85% annual growth, while self-builder havens like Ruaka declined 2.1% annually.
A Market Divided
The HassConsult indices, which track property and land prices across Nairobi and surrounding areas, reveal two Kenyan property markets diverging. In one, wealthy locals and developers compete for prime urban land, driving prices up regardless of rental yields. In the other, aspiring middle-class self-builders face slowing growth and shrinking opportunities.
The data shows that since October 2015, detached houses appreciated 1.52-fold while apartments managed just 1.08-fold according to the Hass Composite Sales Index. The market itself transformed: apartments grew from 23.5% of listings in 2001 to 69.9% by December 2024, while detached houses fell from 52% to just 7.2%.
For investors, HassConsult’s performance comparison shows land in satellite towns has outperformed all asset classes since 2007—turning KES 1 million into KES 13.23 million by Q3 2025, compared to KES 7.4 million in Nairobi suburbs, KES 4.75 million in bonds, or just KES 550,000 in equities.
However, the recent quarterly data suggests that era of satellite town dominance may be ending, with growth rates now lagging behind Nairobi suburbs.
What It Means
Despite the traditional August lull that kept Q3 growth to a subdued 1.1% quarterly rise, the HassConsult data proves Nairobi’s property market has fundamentally changed. Expatriate departure isn’t causing collapse—it’s revealing latent local demand. Development trumps self-building. Cash-rich buyers dominate over rental investors.
The question for 2026: is the middle-class dream of homeownership adapting or dying?
The Hass Property Index and Hass Land Index are quarterly reports published by HassConsult Real Estate Limited tracking property sales prices, rental prices, and land values across Nairobi suburbs and satellite towns.
